Welcome. Thank you for joining us for this edition of the Modlin Global Analysis newsletter. I am pleased to be joined with Dan Modlin, who will be offering a series of questions on US-China relations, China-Taiwan relations, and US-Taiwan relations this week. We're going to be giving some background history on Taiwan relations and its origin story and how that traces back largely to China's history and its cycles of revolution, and how that contextualizes the politics that we see today. May 4th at 7 pm I will be hosting a conversation on Tawain and China at the River Birch Room at Lost River Cave in Bowling Green.
Dan
I think it's true that a lot of times we have a better understanding of the current situation if we can go back a little bit in history and kind of find out how we got here. Isn't it true it an awful lot of the current situation with Taiwan and China really relates to history in the 20th century.
Kevin
We need to look at the history of these relations, but also recognize throughout these periods that a number of decisions are made by those actors that influence us today, but also actors today have a range of choices. We know starting off that under the Qing dynasty was facing break up in the early 1900s by a series of challenges. These challenges included the effects of the war with Japan and then after that, the war that Japan had with Russia that further solidified gains that Japan had control over parts of what we call territorial China today. Also, that contributed to nationalist sentiments throughout China. That capitalized on the instability and weaknesses of the Qing dynasty and led to the overthrow of the dynastic system that we saw prevalent throughout most of China's history. That only really changed in the last 100 years or so, and that system rose to power and had gained strength largely through playing on these grievances as well as grievances that contributed from the colonial era that the Western powers gained access to Chinese ports largely through force. And to acquire goods and export those through the Opium War as well as the Open Door policy.
Dan
OK. And then as we move ahead, it's important to look at the origins of the Chinese nationalists.
Kevin
So that Chinese Nationalist Party, we often associate with Chiang Kai-shek. But he was not in charge of that movement to begin with. He comes later to the stage, but the Chinese nationalists also have difficulty facing external threats and internal challenges, including the rise of Mao Zedong. Through his Long March and other efforts lead a revolution throughout China that really challenges China at the worst time that they could imagine. So, they are facing an internal revolution as well as an external threat with Japan, and we see actually even the Russians intervene and assist sometimes the nationalists against Japan, other times they assist the Chinese Communists against Japan. But in all cases, they are playing against each other and particularly the Chinese Communists gain leverage and influence both by playing off the weaknesses of the Nationalist Party. But also, they had some victories against the Japanese, which garnered additional support.
Dan
OK. So then as you refer to the Chinese Nationalist Party ran into considerable trouble with the emergence of the Chinese Communist Party.
Kevin
Exactly. And Mao was very effective in garnering support. So, unlike other Communist movements that we saw before, this movement emphasized the agrarian culture and transformation and well-being for the agrarians. Whereas other communist movements look more towards the industrial workers. This agrarian angle has always been a point of distinction, but it also was a point of strength for Mao. He was able to draw supply and support from the rural parts of China, which is of course a considerable space, especially in that time period and always had a harbor there but also drew much of his political support from that region.
Dan
OK. And then as the military victories mounted up for the Chinese Communist Party, how did Taiwan become a more important location for the Chinese nationalists?
Kevin
So, the Chinese Nationalists again had to face both the threat of Japan and the communists simultaneously. And we do see this pattern come up that if communist elements or initiatives rise, they seem to do better in situations where you already have internal strife, especially the causes of an existing conflict. More so overtime, the Chinese communists gained power throughout China, and they are able to have victories largely because of the decline of the nationalists and the nationalists decide to flee. And the best choice they have, of course, is to go to Taiwan as we know today.
Dan
Kevin, isn't it true that Taiwan itself has a very interesting history?
Kevin
Taiwan was part of the Qing dynasty and number of Chinese would live and trade from Taiwan. Afterwards, the Portuguese gain control of that and colonial period, and during the Sino-Japanese War, the Japanese gained control of Taiwan, so Taiwan loses Japanese control. Of course, when Japan loses in World War II and 1945 and Chiang Kai-shek decides with the decline of his party's movement, to go into exile and occupy Taiwan. It should be noted that even though Chiang and his forces moved to Taiwan, they did not ever see claim of. I mean, the true government of China. So that is part of the complexities of the relationship to start right from the beginning. The Republic of China and the People's Republic of China claim to be the true government of the whole of China, and they mean the whole of China both what we call the mainland China as well as Taiwan. Even though there are rich differences as far as policies and distrust between the sides they both claim the same sovereign right over that territory.
Dan
And I believe it's true that a lot of conservative interests in the United States were very supportive of Chinese Government for many years.
Kevin
Right. So that's comes back to the US. So the US was not entirely super interested as a whole, especially its politics until the rise of communism in China, and found that as a threat in the same sense that it's all the revolution in Russia as a threat. And so any movement contrary to that they found sympathies with including Chiang Kai-shek.
Dan
OK. And so all of these elements working together play a role in what we're facing today.
Kevin
They do play a role in what we're facing today and we're going to talk through this series about that. It should be noted how the Long March and the Chinese Communist Revolution, as well as the government of Chiang Kai Shek and these competing claims continue to come up in the discourse that we see today between. China and Taiwan. So after Chinese party have their major meetings, they will go on a retreat and they will reference this Long March or they will reference other seminal events in their origin story for the Communist Party. In the same regard, the Chinese nationalists will remember the legacy of atrocities under communism as well as the hardships that they faced in these tension points. On both sides they have rationales and arguments that they referenced throughout these dialogues. In the past both determines where they are physically located. The animosities that they have, but there's also referenced continuously in trying to define who they are.
Dan
So we're getting kind of an overview here of the background of this very important issue. I know Kevin, you have a presentation coming up on May 4th at the River Birch Room at Lost River Cave in Bowling Green in which you will be talking about these issues and also some of the international relations strategy that perhaps is involved.
Kevin
Right, so I want to welcome people to come and join us on May 4th at the River Birch Room at 7:00 o'clock in Lost River Cave in Bowling Green, KY. I will be glad to take people's questions on these issues. Prior dynamics that we see in Taiwan, so we'll talk about both the points of division and why they continue to exist, but also why the US has this interesting policy that's called strategic ambiguity where its policy is actually not ever enunciated or it's intentionally. Ambiguous for both Taiwan's position as well as China's position.
Dan
Strategic ambiguity is an interesting term, and I know you gave a a paper on this at the political science conference in Chicago just a couple of weeks ago. So this will be a chance for people to kind of get an idea of some of the strategy that's going on behind the scenes when people discuss Taiwan and China.
Kevin
And what we're going to focus on is not just the ambiguity and how that is a concept and complicated, but also we're going to spend a lot of time thinking about the threats that Taiwan faces and how China may respond in the coming years, as well as what those could entail. And of course, how that may affect economic decision makers in the United States. This event is open to the public and free, and I've always found that the best part of these conversations are the question and answer. So we will have equal amounts of time for robust questions and I found we have excellent conversations to those angles. I know when I talk with people and throughout the community there is genuine interest in this question around Taiwan and I think just exploring these questions further will at least help us prepare and think more carefully about what's transpiring.
Dan
OK. And that's coming up May 4th at 7:00 PM at the River Birch Room lost River Cave in Bowling Green, KY and no admission. Charge and a very interesting presentation on the subject of strategic ambiguity and how that relates to China and Taiwan.
Kevin
Thank you very much.
Dr. Garcia’s article on China and Latin American relations in Foreign Affairs Latin America (Spanish)
For news and analysis on Congress and the Debt Limit debate follow Liam Donovan.
Taiwan Pt. 1